ÜbersichtCarsten Roemheld speaks to Fidelity International's Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery about the questions facing investors on China and the war in Ukraine, and how markets have reacted to the Fed's rate hike.
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Highights
On China and Ukraine
“Many of the comments that have come out of China, especially this week, very clearly reflected that they do respect the nation state that is Ukraine and the territory that comes with that and, importantly, are showing they do want to make sure that they can help to achieve something that would ultimately lead to an end to the war.”
“The Chinese government focuses on what is important within China, which is achieving that regulatory change, ensuring common prosperity - that is such a key policy and focus for them - and also getting their economy to continue to stabilise and improve as the year progresses […] I think the Chinese authorities have been very proactive this week in trying to engage more broadly across the major nations to try and demonstrate that they are very keen to help support how we get to a better position.”
On the Fed raising interest rates
“For markets two things really stand out. One is expectations that yields will continue to move higher. What it’s also done is continue to flatten the curve, even invert it in places, and suggest that the market feels that the trajectory of rate rises actually increases the risk of growth coming off very rapidly and even leading to recession.”
On hawkish messaging from the ECB
“The consistency of policy setting to keep up the narrative that started around this more hawkish profile will gradually ease off, partly because the data will start to show some of the challenges on the real economy.”
On risk assets
“We would be slightly cautious looking at risk assets and not being too early to believe the worst is past us. However, I think it’s important to look at markets in their individual context […] It’s not necessarily the case that markets will go down further, but we need to see more information before we believe they can properly recover and have an opportunity set that’s attractive to be able to invest more aggressively.”
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